Archive for the ‘Pump and Dump’ Category

Playing The Market…

Wednesday, November 19th, 2008
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Are you as tired as I am over all the trash talk about YTB’s stock? Honestly, I’m sick of it. It’s as if YTBLA.OB is the only stock out there that’s down in the dumps. You’ve got to be hiding out in a cave somewhere not to realize that the markets overall are…well, in the toilet.

While the market has many running in fear, others are banking on the fact that the market will eventually turn in an upward trend. Most people would think someone would be crazy to actually be buying stock these days. Yet, that’s exactly what many of the super wealthy would have done in order to make their fortune. It’s times like these that would explain why Warren Buffett bought a considerable amount of stock at the end of the third quarter. (And if you’re thinking he sold a bunch, think again.)

The “Average Joe” simply can’t stomach what’s going on right now. That’s why we’re seeing the selling frenzy that we are, and also why critics appear to be focused on YTB’s stock specifically. It helps give the perception that the company is in dire straights and won’t last. Our third quarter numbers did a significant job is dispelling those rumors after their release. While there is a considerable amount of excuses following YTB’s profitable quarter, it did cause some of the most hardened critics to actually state that the numbers actually turned out better than they expected.

I would assume that’s why the focus has been shifted so quickly to the stock. It’s the one thing critics can point to that doesn’t look all that rosy, nor is bouncing back. The picture they’re painting is as if all other sectors are doing just fine, and it’s only YTB that’s having the difficulty holding on to its price. (Even with a profitable quarter.)

This attempt to spin the stock got me thinking how YTB compares to other stocks, more specifically, the travel sector since YTB of course knows nothing about travel. (Even after our 8 year run in this sector and being named in Travel Weekly’s Power List the last two years.)

By no means do I claim to be some type of stock expert. Far from it. But anyone with a pulse should realize that the markets, even after the election, continue to tank.

After pulling up various stocks to compare with YTB’s I started noticing that the broad brushed picture being painted isn’t what our critics claim it to be. (Big surprise, I’m sure.) Nor did any one sector in our industry lead in the categories I checked. About the only sector I was not able to check thoroughly at this time were other Brick and Mortars. (Most according to the Travel Weekly Power List are privately held.) I also tried to pick stocks that most everyone would know, even if you’re not “in” the industry. (Hogg Robinson Group, being probably the one exception.) Since there were so few public Brick and Mortar Agencies, I did use both American Express and Boeing who do own “Agencies” but obviously have diversification which neither look to either help or hinder their performance over the last year.

Here is an overview of the industry representing Airline, Cruise, Brick and Mortar, and On-line Agencies.

Indstry Snapshot

YTB (as noted by the blue dot) ends up pretty much “average” compared to the other stocks in the industry. Since there are so many in this sample, I’ve taken each industry and broken it down into segments for ease of reading.

Our first sector is how YTB compares to the Airline Industry. Companies are color coded and YTB will remain blue. Companies sampled with YTB are Continental, Delta, US Airways, and Northwest Airlines.

Airline Industry

Next is a one year snap shot of Brick and Mortar Travel Agengies, which include American Express, Boeing, and Hogg Robinson Group.

Brick and Mortar Agencies

Would a one year snap shot of on-line agencies look any better? Take a look at how YTB compares with Expedia, Priceline, and Orbitz.

One Year Snapshot of On-Line Agencies

And our last sector is the cruise industry as we take a look at both Carnival and Royal Caribbean.

Comparison of Cruise Lines

After looking at this again, maybe Royal Caribbean should be the one in red…

So what gives? Why all the focus and fuss over YTB’s stock when obviously YTB appears to be on par with all the other companies in the market?

Because that’s what critics do. It’s something for them to talk about to give the perception that the Network Marketing business model is flawed or inferior to what they consider a tradition business plan. It’s all about perception to add fear and doubt about your choice in the industry.

They want you to go back to something more “legitimate” or “secure”.

So let me ask you. When it comes to the stock market, which one of these stocks above look to be more secure to you?<-->

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Doug & Ronda Bauknight
AKA: TravelPro
Travel Agent / Networker
Phone: 678.458.5812

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I’ve Been Duped!

Friday, April 11th, 2008
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They finally got me.

I have just been duped – hoodwinked - had the wool pulled over my eyes - what ever you want to call it, busted for not following a “Golden Rule” that I have been preaching here for years. I can’t say that I don’t know how this happened, because I do, and I’ll explain how this scam worked, but quite honestly I’m more than a little embarrassed over what just transpired a few days ago.

First, what’s this “Golden Rule” that I tell you to follow but I somehow forgot?

“Don’t believe a word you hear, unless you can verify it on your own to be true.”

Mistakes happen, and while I’m not sure that either Neal Boortz or Harv Ecker, two mentors of mine who have attempted and obviously failed to pound this into my head, would ever forgive me for such a simple oversight, I’m just going to try to let this one slide under the table, and chalk it up to experience.

I feel obligated however to help you learn from my mistake.

So, just how was I played? How could someone like ME miss something like this? The “sting” stems from the newly released 2007 Annual Report when a couple of days ago, one of the Traditionalists posted a comment on my blog that there were only 366 shareholders of company stock.

I simply dismissed it and told this Traditionalist they might have heard something to that effect, but I could assure them, there were more than 366 stockholders of YTBLA. (Myself being one of them.) Another Traditionalist chimed in that this number could in fact be found in the Annual Report on the bottom of page 9.

Now remember my Golden Rule; “Don’t believe a word you hear, unless you can verify it on your own to be true.” So like a good boy, I opened up the Annual Report and sure enough, there it is.

“As of December 31, 2007, we had 366 shareholders of record of our Class A Common Stock and Class B Common Stock.”

I was dumbfounded to be honest. I know a ton of people in YTB and when the stock was down in the dumps, I got calls, e-mails, and private messages asking me what I knew what was going on with the company stock. I couldn’t honestly tell them anything I knew because, I really didn’t know why. My gut told me that it would rebound, and I’ve learned to always trust my gut.

By the way, I have very limited experience in this type of stuff. Yes, I own stock, and I also have some mutual funds that I have invested in, but for the most part, investments of this type are of a very limited basis. When I tried to purchase this stock a couple of years ago, I went to a Broker who simply wouldn’t in good conscience let me invest the type of money I was talking about into YTB. While I thought this Analyst was very nice and polite, I wasn’t asking him for advice, I just needed a Broker and it would either be him or someone else. (As it turned out, it ended up being E-Trade.)

When I realized that I was only one of 366 stockholders according to what I was told and I thought I was able to confirm, I had a choice to position this as either be a very risky and lucky investor, or brilliant.

Which position do you think I decided to pick? ;-P

But something just didn’t sit right with me. I couldn’t imagine with all the employees at the home office, all the Directors who were vested in stock due to bonuses and many of them had invested early themselves like I did, and all the people calling and e-mailing me in a panic a month or so ago that there were only 366 stock holders at the end of 2007.

It just didn’t add up! (Sorry, had to steal that line.)

With documentation like an Annual Report that’s filed with the SEC, I had to take this as fact. It’s right there in black and white and can’t really argue the point very well now could I? I had seen some of the “Critics” posting on various boards that with only 366 stockholders, manipulation of the stock up or down is very easy to do. Speculation that a couple of Directors had gotten together to drive the price up and then dump it were running amok all over the place. Critics will continue to spread this “Pump and Dump” theory for years to come, trust me.

With all the headlines and focus on the Annual Report about YTB being a Darling, and Stock to watch, I knew that it was Day Traders manipulating the stock price, not Directors, so that spin was extremely easy to dismiss and let go of.

You should too, because it’s complete bunk.

Then yesterday afternoon I got a call from someone cross line to me who I speak with on a regular basis and we exchange what we hear, and most of the time have a good laugh at all the fuss over little ol’ YTB these days.

Then the bombshell came. “Doug” he said, “You know that 366 number that everyone’s been talking about?”

“Yes” I replied.

“That number represents employees at the Home Office not total shareholders.”

WHAT?

Sure enough, I confirmed with an Investment Broker and according to the SEC, the company has to report how many “employees” own stock.

How could I have been so blind to trust a bunch of Critics, Naysayers, Cynics, who’s only mission in life is to “spin”? I actually thought they knew what they were talking about!

So there you have it. How Doug got snookered by the TTA’s and Critics. A cryin’ shame, but I guess it could happen to the best of us.

So the next time you see some “Critic” spout off something as “fact”, please save yourself the embarrassment.

“Don’t believe a word you hear, unless you can verify it on your own to be true.”

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Doug & Ronda Bauknight
AKA: TravelPro
Travel Agent / Networker

Phone: 678.458.5812


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